Barrick Mining Corporation (B)

Exchange: NYSE · Sector: Mining · Industry: Gold & Copper Mining · Country: Other · Web: www.barrick.com/

Barrick Mining Corporation (formerly Barrick Gold) is one of the world’s largest gold and copper mining companies. Operates six Tier One gold mines across Africa, Americas, and Asia Pacific.

📊 Quick Stats

MetricValue
Sources Analyzed0
Research Notes0
Management Quotes5
Roadmap Items10
Delivery Rate100% (1/1 concluded)

💬 Management Quotes

The key message is that Reko Diq transforms our copper production profile from 2029 onward, and Lumwana positions us as a top-tier copper producer well before that. — Graham Shuttleworth (CFO) · Q4 2024 Earnings Call growth

🇹🇭 ข้อความสำคัญคือ Reko Diq จะเปลี่ยนโฉมโปรไฟล์การผลิตทองแดงของเราจากปี 2029 เป็นต้นไป

PV is a big value creator in Barrick. And again, you’ve seen I don’t hesitate to clean up the portfolio at the appropriate time. And the best time is when you have higher commodity prices. — Mark Bristow (CEO) · Q4 2024 Earnings Call strategy

🇹🇭 Pueblo Viejo เป็นตัวสร้างมูลค่าสำคัญใน Barrick

Every one of our operations are independently viable, and Barrick’s balance sheet is very solid. And so, with or without Loulo will not change our long-term plan, our five-year plan. — Mark Bristow (CEO) · Q4 2024 Earnings Call risk

🇹🇭 ทุกหน่วยงานของเราสามารถดำรงอยู่ได้อย่างเป็นอิสระ และงบดุลของ Barrick แข็งแกร่งมาก

We are focused on delivering sustainable long-term value by owning the best gold and copper assets managed by the best people. With gold becoming more important as a safe haven in a geopolitically uncertain world, and copper being as strategic as gold is precious. — Mark Bristow (CEO) · Q4 2024 Earnings Call strategy

🇹🇭 เรามุ่งมั่นสร้างมูลค่าระยะยาวอย่างยั่งยืนจากการถือครองสินทรัพย์ทองคำและทองแดงที่ดีที่สุด

By any measure, Barrick Gold Corporation today presents a standout value opportunity. Consensus NAV analysis shows Nevada and copper assets alone exceed our market cap — implying negative value for all our remaining Tier 1 and Tier 2 assets. — Mark Bristow (CEO) · Q4 2024 Earnings Call strategy

🇹🇭 ด้วยทุกมาตรวัด Barrick Gold Corporation ในวันนี้นำเสนอโอกาสสร้างมูลค่าที่โดดเด่น

🗺️ Management Roadmap

Delivery Rate: 100% (1 delivered / 1 concluded / 10 total)

Potential IPO of North American gold assets (Nevada Gold Mines, Fourmile, related assets) — exploring structure and timing Said: Feb 27, 2026 · FY2025 40-F / MD&A

👁️ Lumwana Super Pit Expansion: Major capex phase continuing — capex guided $600M+ in 2026, target to become top-tier copper producer Said: Feb 27, 2026 · FY2025 40-F / MD&A

Incorporate Fourmile ultra-high-grade project into Nevada Gold Mines JV at fair market value Said: Feb 27, 2026 · FY2025 40-F / MD&A

Search for permanent President and CEO to succeed Mark Bristow — interim leadership in place Said: Feb 27, 2026 · FY2025 40-F / MD&A

👁️ Achieve 30%+ group-wide gold equivalent production growth by end of decade (2029-2030), anchored by Reko Diq, Lumwana, Pueblo Viejo, and Nevada Said: Feb 12, 2025 · Q4 2024 Earnings CallOutcome (Mar 29, 2026): Construction ongoing, on schedule for 2028 production

Resolve Mali/Loulo situation and restart production — arbitration filed, contingency plan for restart early March 2025 if employees released Said: Feb 12, 2025 · Q4 2024 Earnings CallOutcome (Dec 31, 2025): Loulo-Gounkoto operations resumed in FY2025 after $559M settlement payment to Mali government in Q4 2025. Employees released. Royalty rate now 18% under 2023 Mining Code.

👁️ Reko Diq Phase 1: Complete project financing by Q3 2025 and begin construction — production target end of 2028, cost $5.6–6B (100% basis) Said: Feb 12, 2025 · Q4 2024 Earnings CallOutcome (Mar 29, 2026): Construction ongoing, on schedule for 2028 production

👁️ Lumwana Super Pit Expansion: Deploy $600M capex in 2025 — feasibility complete, permits received, early works and long-lead fabrication underway Said: Feb 12, 2025 · Q4 2024 Earnings CallOutcome (May 13, 2025): Review quarterly update for capex/permits/progress; update status and add evidence link.

Pueblo Viejo: Achieve mid-600,000 oz attributable production in 2025, then exceed 800,000 oz from 2026 onward; El Naranjo tailings relocation complete by 2029 Said: Feb 12, 2025 · Q4 2024 Earnings CallOutcome (May 13, 2025): Review production guidance milestones; update status and add evidence link.

Fourmile (Nevada): Complete pre-feasibility study within 3 years; allocate $78M in 2025 for study; grade significantly higher than adjacent Goldrush (~12g/t vs 6g/t) Said: Feb 12, 2025 · Q4 2024 Earnings CallOutcome (May 13, 2025): Check study timeline/capex updates; update status and add evidence link.

💰 Financials

USD, Million

Metric20062007200820092010
Revenue6,0146,0147,6137,6137,613
Operating Income2,4152,4152,415
EBITDA3,3273,3273,327
Net Income00785785785
EPS Diluted1.281.280.890.890.89
Operating CF1,7681,7682,2542,2542,254
CapEx-1,916-1,916-1,916
Free Cash Flow338338338
Cash3,0433,0432,2072,2072,207

⚖️ Bull / Bear Case

🟢 Bull Case

Gold price tailwinds from central bank buying, dedollarization trends, and persistent geopolitical instability support $2,000–$2,500+ gold long-term. Exceptional operational leverage — each $100/oz rise in gold price adds ~$400M FCF annually. Reko Diq copper project (Pakistan) provides decades of tier-one copper growth not yet priced into market cap. Organic reserve replacement at ~$10/oz is industry-leading and extends asset longevity. Balance sheet strong enough to self-fund all major capex without equity dilution. Bristow’s track record on portfolio discipline and value creation is exceptional.

🔴 Bear Case

AISC creep ($1,262 → $1,390 over 3 years) narrows margin expansion narrative if gold plateaus. Mali/Loulo dispute (~10% of production) remains unresolved — prolonged suspension materially impairs 2025 targets. Reko Diq execution risk is the single biggest concern: $5.6-6B capex in Pakistan is the largest project in Barrick’s history; delay, overrun, or political shift in Balochistan would be material. Gold price mean-reversion from $2,400+ would significantly compress FCF and re-rate the stock.

⚠️ Key Risks

  • [high] Mali / Loulo-Gounkoto Dispute: Loulo-Gounkoto (Mali, 80% Barrick) contributes ~400Koz/year (~10% of attributable gold production). Three Barrick employees detained by Malian government since end-2024. Mine in care-and-maintenance. No timeline for resolution.
  • [high] Reko Diq Execution & Pakistan Risk: Largest single capex commitment in Barrick history ($5.6-6B, Barrick 50%). Located in Balochistan, Pakistan — historically challenging jurisdiction. Project financing not yet signed as of Q4 2024 (targeting Q3 2025). Production target end-2028.
  • [high] Gold Price Volatility: Revenue and FCF highly correlated to spot gold price. AISC ~$1,390/oz. A $100/oz gold price decline reduces annual revenue ~$400M. Return to $1,800/oz gold would eliminate most FCF and require significant capex prioritization.
  • [medium] Rising All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC): AISC rose from $1,262/oz (2022) to $1,390/oz (2024) — a $128/oz increase in 2 years driven by labor, energy, and reagent inflation. Industry-wide trend. If gold price plateaus, margin compression accelerates.
  • [medium] Geopolitical Concentration in High-Risk Jurisdictions: ~40-50% of production from Mali, DRC, Tanzania, Pakistan, PNG — all elevated-risk jurisdictions. Regulatory changes, resource nationalism, or instability can disrupt operations with limited warning.